As we approach the end of 2025, it feels like a good moment to pause, reflect, and ask ourselves a simple question: how much did we really get right at the end of 2024?
Back then, the expectations were fairly clear and quite reasonable:
- India–USA relations were expected to grow from strong to strongest ever.
- Indian markets were seen as strong global performers
- The Ukraine war was hoped to end, or at least settle into a freeze
- Stability in the Middle East felt likely
- And many believed the AI euphoria would see a meaningful correction
So, how much of this actually played out in 2025?
The year began with a continued correction in Indian markets, which had started in September 2024. By the first week of April, markets touched the lowest levels of 2025. The bounce back thereafter gave investors renewed confidence, but since then, markets have largely been moving within a range. While a few stocks have managed to recover, many are still struggling to regain momentum. For most investors, it felt like one step forward and two steps sideways.
What’s interesting is that towards the end of 2024, hardly anyone anticipated the following developments:
- Income tax relief on income up to ₹12 lakh
- Tariff actions from the USA (India had the highest impact)
- A GST rate cut
- Inflation coming down
- The rupee depreciating
However, even though some of these developments were favourable, the improvement in corporate performance did not fully translate into capital market performance. Once again, this reminded us how quickly the market narrative can change.
Tariffs, ongoing wars, shifting global alliances, and persistent economic uncertainty made 2025 a year that tested patience far more than optimism. It was not an easy year to stay calm.
Naturally, the next question is—what about 2026?
Looking ahead, we may see:
- A possible burst of the AI bubble
- Some progress in the Ukraine conflict
- India moving past the immediate impact of tariffs
- Improved diplomatic ties with Russia and China
Each of these developments undoubtedly carries both opportunities and challenges. Artificial Intelligence is expected to drive significant productivity gains, but it could also result in job losses, particularly within India’s technology workforce. Regulatory changes across countries may impact Indians working overseas. Layered on top of all this is the growing frequency of natural calamities, which can disrupt economies in ways no spreadsheet can fully capture.
If there is one lesson the last few years have taught us, it is this: the future rarely moves in a straight line. You never really know what lies ahead. It surprises and humbles us often when we least expect it.
So, in the middle of all this uncertainty, what should an investor actually do?
In my experience, the answers are simple but not always easy:
- Think long term. Plan for the next decade, not the next year.
- Stay disciplined. Automate your investments so that emotions do not get in the way.
- Tune out the noise. Headlines are designed to grab attention, not build wealth.
Markets will rise. Markets will fall. That is inevitable. But your investment strategy should not be a reaction to market noise. It should be centred around planning for your life which are your goals, your responsibilities, and your future.
In the end, successful investing is not about predicting the world. It is about staying steady when the world refuses to be predictable.
Shreedhara is the Founder & Director of Ara Financial Services Pvt. Ltd. He has an experience of over 2 decades in Financial Service Industry with majority of it in guiding individuals and institutions on their investments requirements.
